The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has reported that national home sales fell nearly 2% in 2025, largely due to the uncertainty fuelled by the ongoing trade war. However, a positive rebound is expected leading up to this year’s spring market, as the real estate activity gradually picks up after a slowdown towards the end of 2025.

A Closer Look at the 2025 Real Estate Market

The real estate market experienced a noticeable slowdown in 2025, largely as a result of the trade war. According to the Canadian Real Estate Association, this resulted in a nearly 2% drop in national home sales. This uncertainty had a considerable impact on the real estate market, significantly influencing buyer and investor confidence.

Anticipated Rebound in 2026

Despite the 2025 downturn, CREA is optimistic about the prospects for 2026. The association expects a rebound in the nation’s real estate market as activity picks up leading to the spring market. Economic indicators, including lower mortgage rates and an overall improvement in the economy, are supportive of this positive outlook.

Factors Influencing the Rebound

Several factors are contributing to the anticipated rebound in home sales. Firstly, the Canadian economy is showing signs of recovery, with a decrease in unemployment rates and an increase in consumer confidence. Secondly, with the easing of trade tensions, investors are likely to regain confidence in the market. Lastly, lower mortgage rates are expected to stimulate housing demand, providing further impetus for a rebound in home sales.

Lower Mortgage Rates

One of the key factors driving the expected rebound is the lower mortgage rates. These lower rates make it more affordable for potential buyers to enter the market, thereby stimulating demand. This trend is expected to continue into the spring, which is traditionally a busy period for the Canadian real estate market.

Regaining Investor Confidence

As trade tensions ease, investor confidence is gradually being restored. This is expected to fuel a surge in real estate activity, leading to an increase in home sales. Furthermore, the anticipated economic recovery is likely to enhance investor confidence, encouraging more investments in the real estate market.

Conclusion

While 2025 was a challenging year for the Canadian real estate market due to the trade war, the outlook for 2026 is positive. With favourable economic conditions, lower mortgage rates, and improved investor confidence, a robust rebound in national home sales is expected leading up to the spring market. Thus, 2026 could prove to be a significant year for the Canadian real estate market.

Ethan Radcliffe

Ethan Radcliffe is a senior reporter and digital editor at The Toronto Insider, specializing in Canadian federal policy, GTA urban development, and national economic trends. With over a decade of experience in North American journalism, Ethan focuses on translating complex legislative and economic developments into clear, accessible reporting for Canadian readers. Ethan’s work emphasizes policy analysis, government accountability, and data-driven reporting, with a strong focus on how federal and provincial decisions impact communities across the Greater Toronto Area and beyond. He has covered infrastructure planning, housing policy, fiscal strategy, and regulatory changes affecting Canadian households and businesses. A graduate of Toronto Metropolitan University’s School of Journalism, Ethan brings expertise in investigative reporting, long-form analysis, editorial standards, and digital publishing best practices. His reporting is guided by verifiable sources, public records, and transparent sourcing. In addition to reporting, Ethan has experience in newsroom editing, fact-checking workflows, SEO-informed journalism, and audience analytics, ensuring stories meet both editorial integrity standards and modern digital discoverability requirements. Ethan is committed to objective, fact-driven journalism and adheres to established ethical guidelines, prioritizing accuracy, clarity, and public trust in all reporting.

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