All that glitters in Canada’s trade turnaround is not just oil or aircraft parts, but an old reliable source of wealth: gold. In the recent months, Canada has seen a surprising return to a trade surplus, largely driven by the metal and non-metallic mineral products segment that includes unwrought gold. With gold prices soaring and exports increasing, the precious metal has become a shining star in Canada’s trade picture.

Canada’s Return to Trade Surplus

In September, Canada made an unexpected return to a trade surplus, the first since January.

This turnaround was largely due to a 6.3 per cent increase in exports that month, which shifted Canada from an international trade deficit of $6.4 billion in August to a small surplus of $153 million.

Gold: A Major Contributor

A variety of sectors contributed to the jump in exports, including oil, aircraft parts, and light trucks. However, the largest increase came from the metal and non-metallic mineral products segment, driven by higher exports of unwrought gold, according to Statistics Canada. Gold has consistently contributed to Canada’s trade picture, especially since the start of 2023, when gold price growth skyrocketed. As a result, precious metals have doubled as a share of Canada’s merchandise exports.

Gold Prices and Trade Balance

Over the time, gold prices have more than doubled from around US$2,000 an ounce to US$4,270 this week. Meanwhile, gold imports have remained relatively stable as a share of merchandise trade over the years. This has positively impacted Canada’s trade balance as gold exports rise faster than gold imports.

Impact of Gold Price Surge on Trade Numbers

In releasing September’s trade numbers, Statscan noted that of the 4.1-per-cent decline in imports, almost two-thirds came from metal and non-metallic mineral products, again mainly driven by gold. However, these gold-related shifts in Canada’s trade numbers primarily reflect the amplifying effect of the gold price surge. In volume terms, gold exports have remained largely unchanged since the start of 2023.

Understanding Economic Charts

Decoder is a weekly feature that helps readers understand crucial economic charts. In this case, the focus is on the contribution of gold to Canada’s trade turnaround. By taking into account the surge in gold prices and the stable import rates, we can get a clearer picture of the current economic scenario.

Ethan Radcliffe

Ethan Radcliffe is a senior reporter and digital editor at The Toronto Insider, specializing in Canadian federal policy, GTA urban development, and national economic trends. With over a decade of experience in North American journalism, Ethan focuses on translating complex legislative and economic developments into clear, accessible reporting for Canadian readers. Ethan’s work emphasizes policy analysis, government accountability, and data-driven reporting, with a strong focus on how federal and provincial decisions impact communities across the Greater Toronto Area and beyond. He has covered infrastructure planning, housing policy, fiscal strategy, and regulatory changes affecting Canadian households and businesses. A graduate of Toronto Metropolitan University’s School of Journalism, Ethan brings expertise in investigative reporting, long-form analysis, editorial standards, and digital publishing best practices. His reporting is guided by verifiable sources, public records, and transparent sourcing. In addition to reporting, Ethan has experience in newsroom editing, fact-checking workflows, SEO-informed journalism, and audience analytics, ensuring stories meet both editorial integrity standards and modern digital discoverability requirements. Ethan is committed to objective, fact-driven journalism and adheres to established ethical guidelines, prioritizing accuracy, clarity, and public trust in all reporting.

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